It feels like we ask this question on The Coaches Site a lot, but it’s always prescient: want to score more goals?

Mat Sells is the Assistant General Manager with the Minnesota Wild, a team that has traditionally been stingy on defence and lacking in the offensive categories.

But that’s changing. The amount of data in the NHL is endless. It can become overwhelming, but for Sells and the Wild, the key is to reverse engineer scoring chances, and that starts with the goalie. If a goalie is square and they can see shots, they’ll stop them.

So the question for the Wild isn’t how do we score more goals necessarily, it’s how do we beat the goalies?

It’s an important concept for coaches to find answers to common questions, and no question is more common than figuring out how to score night after night after night.

What chances have the best chance of going in the net?

High Danger Scoring Chances

• Screened Shots (from Slot)
• Deflections (with screens)
• Breakaways
• Odd-man rushes
• Slot Line Plays

You read that right. For Sells and the Wild, a screened shot from the slot has a better chance of going in than a pure breakaway. The math doesn’t lie! These are analytics Sells has cultivated over the years.

So there’s answer number one: get more traffic in front of the opposing goalie’s eyes. Broken plays and rebounds can be dangerous as well, but these chances are the most frequent.

The origin of these chances can sometimes feel counter-intuitive. The clips Sells shares highlight players who have the vision to make slot line passes rather than shooting the puck themselves. Most coaches lose their marbles when their players over-pass and under-shoot, but vision counts. If there’s a higher likelihood of a puck going in if it’s moved east to west, then the best players in any given league will see those chances open up.

So what do low danger chances look like?

Low Danger Scoring Chances

• Clear sight shots from the perimeter
• Clear sight shots from outside the slot
• Clear sight shots from the slot

Sometimes, a pure shooting mentality can actually hurt your team. Clear sight shots from the slot go in 5% of the time - that’s probably a shocking stat for most coaches.

But that’s how we learn to score more. Don’t do the goalie’s job for them by helping them feel easy shots. The key is to make life difficult for goaltenders by disrupting their vision and positioning. Players should avoid low-danger chances like clear sight shots from the perimeter or even the slot, as these play to the goalie's strengths. Instead, focus on creating traffic, forcing lateral movement, and generating broken plays that challenge a goalie's ability to track the puck.

Try this out and report back!

Noteworthy Timestamps

• 1:00 Scoring concepts for all ages
• 2:20 Goaltending: See + Square = Save
• 3:30 Scoring chances - high danger
• 4:55 Slot line plays
• 7:20 Scoring chances - mid danger
• 8:00 Scoring chances - low danger
• 12:00 Frequent shots into scoring chances?
• 13:30 Pulling the goalie - why pull early?
• 17:20 1/2 goal deficit