Is Sweden or Minnesota development winning?

With Sweden and Minnesota having almost identical number of youth male hockey players (U20 and below) it gives us an opportunity to compare elite level hockey player development. Based on the numbers it looks like Sweden has a huge advantage. Why?

What are they doing differently?

• Sweden uses blue pucks through Squirts/U10 levels. Meaning black pucks are first used for Peewee/U12 ages.
• Sweden uses small area games for game days.
• Sweden uses 60 second shifts during these games.
• Sweden does not have tryouts until Bantam/U13,U14 age levels. Keeping more kids involved in hockey for a longer period of time. Better retention rates.
• Sweden has more on ice trainers and paid staff to ensure player development is age-appropriate.
• Sweden knows they are smaller (compared to United States/Canada) and takes pride in developing all of their players.
• Sweden has months off from skating in the summer months to play other sports and focus on hockey related dryland skills.
• Sweden has less burnout and overuse injuries.
• Sweden is skill focused and not system focused. When full ice games are first played in Bantam/U13,U14 age levels it allows coaches to focus more on individual skills.
• Sweden plays full ice games at U13/14 (beginning in 2022). Squirt/U10 play on 1/4th ice, 60 second shifts, grouped by skill, using blue pucks.
• Sweden conducts studies to figure out what is best for the player. (see Game Formats for Youth Hockey below)
• Game Formats for Youth Hockey – Research by Finnish and Swedish Ice Hockey Association 2019 – 2020
• Sweden has built their youth hockey system putting the player at the center of all their decisions. They do what is best for the player at their current age.
  

Current NHL Lineup Team Sweden vs Team Minnesota

*(91) *Number inside parentheses is NHL 25 video game overall player rating. Easiest way to be non biased in comparison of what team is better.

Minnesota NHL Players (33 active) as of 10/17/24

Sweden NHL Players (64 active) as of 10/17/24

Sort by birth years to see Sweden is getting more young players onto NHL rosters. Minnesota has 4 players born in 2000 or after that are active in the NHL. Sweden has 21. (as of 10/17/24)

Above also includes United States, Canada, and Finland. Looking at the comparison ratio you can see what countries/state are producing NHL players at a higher rate or percentage. You can also use it to see who has produced more. The argument is not that Sweden is producing more players. Instead we want to know if you were a hockey player from each of the listed countries, where would your odds of being drafted into the NHL be highest. By utilizing the comparison ratio we can see that a stand alone player has the highest opportunity to become drafted into the NHL if they are born/developed in Sweden.

The comparison ratio number was calculated by taking the total current U-20 players in a country and dividing it by their total NHL Draft picks from 2000-2023.

Sweden              43,759 divided by 533 = 82.09

United States     319,607 divided by 1339 = 238.69 (a number nearly 3 times larger than Sweden)

Comparison is meant to show that based on number of players you would be nearly 3 times as likely to become an NHL player if you were born/developed in Sweden compared to the United States.

Sweden              43,759 divided by 533 = 82.09

Canada              361,666 divided by 2233 = 161.96 (a number just about 2 times larger than Sweden)

There is also a comparison ratio based on Draft data from 2016-2023 to show the more recent trends in development. Sweden has a bigger lead over the other countries when looking at 2016-2023 than they have overall from 2000-2023. This shows Sweden is widening their lead in elite hockey player development.

As a stand alone individual player, who is most likely to be drafted into the NHL?

1. Sweden
2. Finland
3. Minnesota
4. Canada
5. United States

Data also shows that you are 3 times more likely from (2016-2023) to be a 1st round draft pick if you are developed in Sweden (1287 comparison ratio) vs Canada (3690 comparison ratio).