Learn the best power play formations to use to increase your scoring chance volume.

Special teams play in hockey is often matchup based due to coaching choices and so we should analyze it that way to gain an edge. The previous piece I wrote was focused on breakout plays and the corresponding forecheck. Today, we’re going to talk about puck movement in the offensive zone once the power play sets up.

Many fans have watched their team move the puck along the perimeter at varying speeds with varying success as well. One of the things I wanted to look at was how, if at all, did the location of the puck influence the penalty killing team’s coverage. More specifically, were teams more or less likely to adopt an aggressive posture based on the puck’s location?

To answer this, we have to look at a few other factors first: 1) Which defensive zone coverages yielded higher quality chances; and 2) from where on the ice could we create the most dangerous chances from? We’ll start with shot density maps against the following coverage schemes – a Czech Press, a Wedge +1, and no obvious structured formation. The way to read these is if an area is darker, there are more shots taken from that area. Observe the shot densities against a Czech Press.

We see groupings on the wings and a smaller cluster at the net. Now, let’s look at the more passive cousin to the Czech Press, the Wedge +1.

Now there’s a more pronounced grouping of shots near the net. There are similar patterns as most power plays set up at the top or along the wings, but we see a shift towards the net, which is more desirable. Finally, let’s look at what happens when the penalty-killing team hasn’t been able to set up in a identifiable formation.

Now we see shots all over the place, but primarily at the net. This would make sense as if a team has successfully broken the PK formation, teams regularly can move closer to the net for a higher quality chance.

So, the ideal situation is to move the puck around early in the power play to tire the penalty killers out and force a coverage shift from the Czech Press to a Wedge +1, that is the first goal on a power play. Great! How do we do that? By recognizing patterns in puck movement and how those influence the opposing coverage. Basically, when we move the puck from the point, to the half wall, to down low, what are the odds we can expect to see the same coverage? A more aggressive one? Or a more conservative one?

The above graphic shows how in 24 situations when the puck carrier had the puck at the left point, passed to the left half wall while under pressure from a Czech Press. In 71% of these sequences, the PK team remained in the aggressive posture; however, when the puck was then moved down low, only 44% of the time did the PK team remain in the aggressive posture. Penalty killing teams regularly go into a more pronounced philosophy of containment as the puck is worked down low. As the puck returns to the point, the F1 and F2 often return to applying direct puck pressure. Observe this in action.

The New York Rangers apply pressure to Rasmus Ristolainen (55) and then Jack Eichel (9), but move into more of a containment posture once Sam Reinhart (23) receives it down low. This allows Eichel and Reinhart to be patient and work a quick opening in the slot that other wise they might not have had the time for if the Rangers remained aggressive.

But why move the puck down low? Yes, it will relieve some pressure off the puck carrier, which is good, but we need to know it will result in higher quality chances, right? Observe.

The shaded area is for any pass originating in it that precedes the shots pictured above. These are all shots that move across the slot, forcing the goalie and defenders to move laterally. Almost every single one of these shots is inside the slot as well. Shot assists from the down low, behind the net area, lead to more dangerous chances than say, the wings. Observe.

From the wings, where most power plays are run from, there are still a good amount of cross-ice passes, but often are farther out than if the pass was made from down low. 22% of shot assists from a wing positions resulted in a cross-ice pass, forcing lateral movement from the goalie. Contrast this with 40% rate on shot assists from down low, behind the net and you see a significant increase in quality.

Conclusion

Not only do you have more time on the puck, free from harassing coverage schemes, but that time generally yields shots from much closer to the net than anywhere else in the zone. Penalty killing in the NHL has adopted this policy of containment when the puck goes down low and it is actually hurting them – this is a market inefficiency that forward-thinking coaches can take advantage of until the rest of the league catches up.